**FIGURE 4***

*Parsimonious Model is run to create Figure 4:

*First run the parsimonious logit using 1pct threshold for sanctions busting:
eststo M3b: logit allbuster_1pct lagts3p lnlaggdpp c.lnlaggdpt##c.lnlaggdpt lagtradeopenp nobust_1pct nobustsq_1pct nobustcb_1pct if P_Sender !=1, robust

*Generate Figure 4
margins, at(lnlaggdpt=(11.65844(0.5)23.14414))
marginsplot, recastci(rarea) recast(line) /// 
	ciopt(color(%20)) plotregion(margin(none)) xlabel(,labels angle(45)) ///
	title("Probability of Sanctions Busting Across Target's Size Using Parsimonious Model")	   ///
	xtitle("Economic Size, Target (ln GDP)") ///
	ytitle("Probability of Sanctions Busting") ///
	ylabel(0.0(0.01).07) xlabel(,format(%9.2f)) ///
	xline(15.67) xline(19.46)
*Add the <- medium-sized economies -> label between the xlines manually
